Regardless of what websites you use to gain access to financial stories, or what channel's you watch for nightly news, you have probably heard nothing but bullish calls and predictions about 2011. I have heard "Dow 13,000" and "Buy Buy Buy" more times in the last week than I have in any other week period in my entire life (albeit short).
In another seemingly bullish bit of news this morning, Jobless Claims, that is, the number of people filing first time unemployment benefits, fell 34,000 to 388,000. This number was a major drop from last week, and way lower than expected. So, all is good right? Markets should be up 1 or 2% at the open right?
Wrong, instead, at least until the Chicago Manufacturing Number, markets are unchanged. Here is my explanation for why this number didn't produce such a major jump in the markets.
1) The last week was filled with snow for most of the northeast. If you could get out of your house, you were most likely spending time shoveling as opposed to running down to the local office to file for unemployment claims.
2) It was a holiday week, probably the most stressful week of the year, and one in which most people spend time doing last minute shopping, wrapping, and traveling. This week is likely to spent with family, and again, not spent filing for jobless claims.
I wouldn't take this number too seriously. It definitely is good if you look at the trend, however the number itself (388,000) doesn't mean much to me, and shouldn't mean much to you either. Interestingly enough in the 30 minutes it took me to write this post, there were two great pieces of economic news. They were:
-Chicago Fed Manufacturing Data better than expected
-Pending Home Sales way better than expected
Good Timing.
Kevin
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