Quick Word on Unemployment

Everything everyone says seems to bring back a couple of points.  GDP, the Dollar, and Unemployment are three of the variables that keep popping off of peoples tongues.  With unemployment still significantly above 9% everyone is wondering when it will start to catch up with the broader market indices.  I am here to tell you that the following chart is giving us a reason to believe things are about to change.

So, what is this chart.  The purple area is showing us the civilian unemployment rate, and the red line is showing us the change in the mean duration of the unemployed citizenry.  What we are seeing here is that in almost every case if high unemployment, we see that before there is a drop off in the civilian unemployment rate, we see the percentage change in duration of unemployment fall to below 20% positive change.  I think that we are quickly approaching the time when we can start to expect positive changes in the unemployment rate. 

Get ready for positive news in the upcoming months.

Best,

Kevin